Using available data models, the analyst projected that Hamilton County could see approximately 68,000 total in-person early votes cast, compared with 96,000 in 2024. The difference could reflect normal midterm-year patterns, where early voting typically represents a smaller share of total votes than in presidential years. Early voting accounted for 32 percent of total votes in 2018 and 2022, but reached 40 percent in 2024.
Election officials said they can confirm how many people truly voted after election season wraps up, compared with years past. “I think there’s going to be a really great turnout this year, and voters are going to be really engaged,” one official said.
In Florida, early returns of mail ballots show a shifting composition of voters participating in this stage of voting. Democrats account for 43.3 percent of the state’s returned mail ballots so far, compared with 35.6 percent for Republicans, with independents making up the remaining 21.1 percent.
Compared with the 2024 election, the Democratic share rose 1.7 percentage points, while the Republican share rose 1.1 percentage points. Independents saw the largest change, with their share falling 2.8 percentage points. Democrats hold a 7.7-point lead among returned mail ballots in the current data, compared with a 7.1-point lead at the corresponding point in 2024.
Republicans have traditionally dominated on Election Day voting, while Democrats have dominated early voting. The shift in Florida’s early mail ballot returns shows both major parties gaining share while independents lose share. The 2.8-point drop among independents deserves attention because it is larger than either party’s individual gain.
